Russia started preparing for a big war

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Starting from February 8 the Russian Federation started deploying forces to carry out military exercises in the Black and Caspian Seas.

Fights around the Syrian city of Aleppo have seriously deteriorated, therefore the peace talks on the Syrian conflict that barely started in Geneva were suspended. Bashar al-Assad’s troops, supported by the Russian Air Force continued the successful offensive in the direction of the Turkish border.

The capture of Aleppo by government forces is currently out of the question. To take the city it has to be leveled to the ground. There might be a siege that would last for many months, and even years, making Aleppo the local “Stalingrad”. The city has a few hundred thousand people in it, as well as many of the rebel forces. They won’t just go away: they are surrounded from many directions. If they come out into the open, they will be destroyed. Of course, there is still a theoretical possibility that the rebels run away from Aleppo, but it is relatively small. They have already said they are not going to leave the city.

Since the pro-Assad forces don’t have much of a good infantry, it will be a long and bloody siege: the second Grozny, may be even worse. To prevent a total humanitarian catastrophe, external forces will interfere. There is a possibility that the Western powers, or the Turks will want to release the besieged rebels, or to cut through a humanitarian corridor. This, in turn, could unleash a more serious conflict, up to a global European war.

Preparations are already taking place. Since yesterday (February 8 – RRT), Russia has started deploying forces and resources for a major war with Turkey. Military exercises are taking place in the Black and Caspian seas, troops of the Southern Military District of the Russian Federation are in full combat readiness by Vladimir Putin’s decision after a sudden check. And Ukrainian General Staff was assured that this activity of the Russian military is not aimed against Ukraine. Caspian fleet has no direct relation to the Ukraine, and there is no sense to fire cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea to Ukraine. Especially since the government crisis is now unfolding in Ukraine, so the Moscow, probably, decided to wait: maybe it falls apart by itself.

Russian military officials expect victory in the north, and then, perhaps, in the south of Syria, which will provide access of the pro-Assad forces to the border with Turkey. No one knows how Turkey will respond. Given that, the Russian Federation is deploying forces in case of a direct large-scale armed conflict with the Turks.

Currently, internal Syrian peace talks have no sense. Negotiations between the West and Moscow, and perhaps Ankara should happen. Pressure is needed, and a peaceful solution to the situation needs to be found to avoid a major war. No one can just sit and wait, looking at the torment of besieged Aleppo. Ultimately, this will lead to an open conflict, and a very bad one – the chances of escalation are very high.

Only by negotiations it can become clear on what conditions Russia is ready for a peaceful settlement of the conflict. We can remember the crisis in 1973 in the Middle East, when Russia and the United States stepped up their forces in the region (the situation was very similar to today’s), and only then began to negotiate. But in order to come to an agreement you need to know everyone’s current position.

Source: NV