Foreign income of Russian economy collapsed to the level of 1999


Russian financial system continues to exist in conditions of actual absence of the inflow of foreign currency, which is compounded by abrupt capital outflows.

As the Central Bank announced in September, private companies brought $3.2 billion abroad, which was 4 times bigger than the inflow ($800 million).

By the results of the 3rd quarter, the difference between the currency inflow and outflow (the trade balance) was $1.9 billion. However, this figure raises many questions, and most likely it was obtained as a result of manipulations with statistics, said analyst of Raiffeisen Bank, Denis Poryvai, and chief economist at Alfa Bank, Natalia Orlova: the Central Bank lowered the estimate of foreign currency inflows in the 2nd quarter by $1.9 billion, and increased it by the same amount in the 3rd quarter.

“Only because of decreasing the evaluation of the previous figures, the surplus does not produce a too bad impression,” Orlova said. In turn, Poryvai noted that without the “manipulation” it would’ve shown the currency outflow not only in September, but in the entire quarter.

As it follows from the Central Bank data, in the first 9 months of 2016 the foreign income of the Russian economy became 3.4 times lower, and reached a record low since 1999 ($15.6 billion).

Rosbank notes that the main reason is the fall in export earnings, and the increase of expenses for purchasing goods abroad: so, in the 3rd quarter the oil revenue dropped by 27%, natural gas revenue by 32%, while imports increased by 4.6%.